On Target, but No Bullseye… Yet…

In this clip from CNBC Tony Dwyer is credited with making a prediction on January 25 that the stock market would pull back. My Rhino Market  post was on January 17… There are a couple key differences between myself and Mr. Dwyer.

  1. I believe I saw a trend and took a chance, Mr. Dwyer has years of experience and credentials in the financial world.
  2. I am a public school teacher and probably make 1/10th (if I’m lucky) of what Mr. Dwyer does.

On this eve of a volatile Friday opening bell I am curious to see what the next two trading days will bring. A positive day could mark the beginning of some stability in the market. Another down day could spark a Black Monday-esque kind of week for the market.

Mr. Dwyer is the first person I have heard call this market trend for what it is, “A human nature game.” In my opinion riding out emotions has been what has led to this large build-up in overvaluation. Without a similar correction to investor emotions the market will be on a wild ride for the next few months.

My Rhino Market post projected much larger losses, and at this point I hope I am wrong. Being a few decades from retirement, my retirement accounts are relatively small and will have time to reestablish after this blip.

If anyone heeded the warning and moved some, or all, of their savings to a more stable account I would love to hear about it.

Final thought: As seen in the image below. The market is still well above the 20,000 mark it started at last March. If you have been invested for more than a year, Congrats, you have made some solid gains! If you fear losing even more than 10% of your savings, talk to your investor, move your money to a stable fund, and cut your losses. The obvious trade off is potentially missing a rebound. If you compare the potential loss of another 10%+ loss to the potential recovery of 10%+ you might find where you are comfortable. Balance your retirement Wants and Needs and I think you might find the safe play is currently outweighing the risk. Peace.1YR market

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